Dan Runcie’s Post

50 Cent’s Final Lap Tour grossed $100+ million in ticket sales from just over 100 shows. Hip-hop has had $100+ million tours before, but not from an artist who hasn’t dropped a new album in 10 years, and mostly performed music that’s over 20 years old. Great to see. I hope we see more. In the past 15 years we've seen hip-hop live performances expand their global footprint. One big reason is streaming and the economics flipping. Artists used to go on tour to sell CDs. Now they sell music to tour. But Jay Z's 2008 deal with Live Nation was a big shift as well. It was a 10-yr, $150 million deal with Live Nation that expanded Jay's reach with worldwide tours. Before, most of his tours were US only. None grossed more than $30M. But in the 2010s, Jay's tours grossed nearly $50M each and stopped in 30+ shows across the world. Today, artists like Drake and Kendrick Lamar have grossed their own $100 million tours. Travis Scott and Nicki Minaj may get there soon too. The demand for superstar artist tours in arenas and stadiums is higher than ever. Which artists do we think are next?

Penske Media now owns or has invested in these media companies covering music and entertainment: - Variety - The Hollywood Reporter - Billboard - Rolling Stone - VIBE - Deadline - Music Business Worldwide - Sportico - Luminate - Sportico - SXSW - Gold Derby - Dick Clark Productions, and dozens of others. How have the acquisitions shaped these companies? How does this impact the coverage and the industries they cover? Pros and cons? Where would these businesses be as standalone entities? We covered all that and more in our latest episode of Trapital, "Why Penske Bought All The Media Companies." I'm joined by Bill Werde, former Billboard editorial director and author of Full Rate No Cap newsletter. You can listen to the episode here: https://lnkd.in/evmGNs_v What are your thoughts on Penske Media's strategy?

Penske has a controlling stake in dozens of media companies, especially in music and entertainment. This week, Trapital did a deep dive on Penske Media's strategy. Here's what we covered: - how Penske Media Corporation partners with brands - private equity's influence in music and entertainment - how PMC ownership impacts coverage on music and entertainment - Penske's approach to operating media companies and business models - ad sales for awards campaigns, the For Your Consideration business - potential conflicts of interest when these brands are under the same roof - where would these brands be without Penske? - which companies we predict are next to get acquired? The graphic below shows some of the media companies that Penske owns or has invested in. The bold ones are in music and entertainment. In this episode I was joined by Bill Werde. He was Billboard's editorial director from 2008 - 2014, author of the Full Rate No Cap newsletter, and the Director of the Bandier Music Business Program at Syracuse University. You can listen to our episode here: https://lnkd.in/evmGNs_v What are your thoughts on Penske Media?

Why Kendrick Lamar vs Drake is unlike most rap beef from back in the day.

It’s hard to compare Kendrick Lamar vs Drake to any beef from the past. Everything has changed with streaming and social media. We explain why and break it all down on our new episode of Trapital. I’m joined by friend of the pod, Sean Taylor. Listen here: https://lnkd.in/e2xV6k4W

Universal Music Group's songs will be back on TikTok after a three month standoff. From what I heard, there had been a tentative licensing deal in place over the past few weeks but Taylor Swift's direct deal with TikTok likely accelerated the process. Here's what I wrote in our Trapital newsletter a few weeks ago: "For Universal, Taylor’s direct deal weakens the record label’s power against TikTok. This is a superstar-driven industry, and the most commercially successful superstar went around the label. The other UMG superstars likely saw Taylor’s deal and are either calling TikTok directly to try and do the same or pushing on the record label for a resolution... I wouldn’t be surprised if UMG artists like Billie Eilish, who has an album coming out on May 17, or Olivia Rodrigo, who’s in the middle of her first arena tour, or Drake and The Weeknd, who both may drop new music in 2024, are wondering what a direct artist deal could look like for them too I also wouldn’t be surprised if a UMG - TikTok deal now happens sooner rather than later." You can also listen to our recent Trapital episode "What Taylor Swift's Return to TikTok Means for Universal Music Group" for more on this. What are your thoughts on the two sides coming together on a deal?

Reuters recently published a report on ByteDance, TikTok, and its future plans. A few takeaways: •ByteDance would rather shut down TikTok than sell to a U.S. buyer • The U.S. accounts for 25% of TikTok’s revenue, while TikTok’s daily active users in the U.S. account for 5% of ByteDance’s worldwide DAUs • Regardless of its future, ByteDance plans to keep TikTok's algorithm The last point makes any future deal difficult. TikTok is a much less attractive asset to acquire without its algorithm. ByteDance and TikTok negotiate with U.S. Congress one day and Universal Music Group the next day. Wild times.

KKR's investments in music over the past 15 years have been fascinating to follow. Here's a brief timeline: • 2009: acquired 51% stake in BMG • 2013: sold that stake to Bertelsmann for $1 billion • 2020: invested in Artlist, a royalty-free music platform • 2021: acquired stake in the catalog of Ryan Tedder (OneRepublic) • 2021: bought Kobalt Capital's Fund II (Chord Music) • 2022: created $1.1 billion music rights bond • 2023: hired Raine Group to explore a sale of Chord Music • 2024: sold Chord Music to UMG and Dundee Partners • 2024: invested $500M in HarbourView through debt financing I pictured The Weeknd in this photo because his publishing catalog was a big part of Chord Music. In our latest episode of Trapital, me and Anna Nicolaou discuss the PE firm's deals and investments in depth. Listen wherever you get podcasts. What are your thoughts on KKR's role in music?

Good example of how music catalogs have evolved in value: In 2007, Primary Wave bought a 50% stake in Nirvana’s catalog for $50 million. The deal was critiqued here in 2009 because it only brought in $2.3 million in two years. Spotify’s Loud & Clear report says 170 artist catalogs generated over $5 million on Spotify in 2023. Nirvana is the 159th most-followed artist on Spotify so let’s assume their in this tier that made over $5 million on the platform last year. Since Spotify accounts for ~20-25% of music revenue, that means over $20 million overall. That does include both masters and publishing revenue, but it’s still a huge jump. Plus, Nirvana has had some great sync placements recently in Succession and The Batman. A lot has changed in this space in 15 years. Nirvana’s catalog is worth a lot more today.

There’s a lesson here for music too. Some investments firms may overspend on music catalogs from artists from the 60s and 70s because the music is “timeless.” Every song has a decay curve and an aging fanbase.